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C.A. Bond's avatar

I've been studying revolutions for the past couple of years now, and I have to say your analysis is just about spot on with regard to what is going to happen. Labor are going to go from chaos to chaos due to the public finances and Reform will walk the next election. Labor and the Conservatives are as done as is immaginable. Reform, from what I can see from the way Farage is acting and the lack of any seriousness in their policy proposals (primarily that they still think having a policy that is enacted through the current disbursement of authority is possible) leads me to understand that they will be an utter catastrophe.

I suspect that the Tory backers will try to skin suit Reform as the new Conservative front but they are out of options. Farage could sit there at the head of a 100% Reform parliament and he would still have zero ability to do anything. I don’t think it is well understood enough how bad the UK “elite” have made a mess of their finances. They have a quarter of their debt in inflation linked gilts which is why the debt repayments have skyrocketed. They are broke and their attempts to cut spending are being blocked at every step. Their tax raises will be an obvious disaster, and to top it off they have massive immigration from people who are, discounting all the other problems they cause, a net negative on finances. To top this off councils are going broke left and right. The math of “diversity” was always utter bullshit, but now it’s coming home to roost far quicker than anyone expected because of these gilts. In many ways, this is something of a miracle. This needs to come to a head now. Not in 20 years, or 30, now, and it is.

What causes revolutions isn’t some spontaneous flowering of freedom or whatever crap liberals claim as they air strike some tin pot dictator and then pay and organise people to topple them. What causes revolutions, real ones, is a reforming state which loses control of the reforming. The UK needs reforming and it can’t do it. There are too many institutions that would not be willing to take the hit. They won’t take the pay cuts, they won’t take the staff cuts, they won’t take the redundancy, and they won’t take the necessary changes that would be “racist” and “hateful”. In short, there is no way this comes out as anything but revolution. Probably during the Reform government when they continue to piss off people.

The only real way I see as a way out of this is if Reform suddenly transformed into an actual party. I don’t mean a “parliamentary” party, but something akin to the Communist party of the Soviet Union or China. I’m talking having their members trained in policing tactics by law enforcement so they can step in as actual de facto if not de jure officers when things go out of control, organs of organisation outside of the current government ones which would be designed to actually help local communities (something which could mobilise members to carry out functions the local council have just stopped doing, like helping people take out trash, provide assistance in the wake of vandalism, crime, accidents, and so on) separate funding means, separate communications channels and so on.

What’s frustrating is that much of this is not that hard to plan and organise. Reform is getting funding from lots of sources, including the Americans, and it could insist that all the elected MPs and councillors provide a percentage of their government salaries to fund the party. Any of them that refused would be questionable. Why would you not be willing to do this? That would be millions a year guaranteed. You could also run a blanket ban on Reform member talking to ANY of the press. All communication can, and should, be done through social media. What argument would the press have for complaining about this? There is no justification for their existence in the age of social media. You would also be able to mobilise Reform members directly to enact decisions in the case that the government agencies proved intransigent. You would just cut the government out and replace it.

But all of this would require massively ratcheting things up when so few people can understand what’s coming, so first the Labor disaster, then the Reform clusterfuck.

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SoakerCity's avatar

Britain has bet the farm on a victory in the war in Ukraine. Seizing Ukraine's natural resources, its rare earth minerals with a hastily scrawled piece of paper- remember that? Alexander Mercouris said that he had never seen anything like it, and doubted its legality. Well, those lands are now under Russian boots and will stay there or the earth itself become a radioactive cinder.

Britain and the rest of the rapacious central banking epicentres wanted to base a massive, financial-system-saving bailout on the looting of Ukraine, as a consolation prize for failing to break apart Russia and loot it. A now ancient Western delusion.

This war was supposed to be the basis for a new credit cycle. A partial victory, a peace treaty, even a managed loss, could have yielded enough sovereign foreign resources to create some sort of material wealth to base a new credit bubble on. But this is a total defeat. There are no spoils, just debt, costly obligations, and destroyed lives and equipment which the deindustrialized West cannot replace.

I heard that the American air defense missiles will take about 4 years to replenish to their pre-war levels. I suspect that they will never reach that level. And China has not even entered the fray. When Ukraine implodes, and Kiev falls, there may be enough public anger at the realizatiuon that this new "Yookay" cannot win wars to possibly kick something off. Britain took a mortal demographic wound in WW1, lost its empire in WW2, and is now losing WW3. Its not hard to deduce that the cost may be the nation itself.

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